It's friday night, and it's not Lent, but that won't stop me from having fish fry for dinner. As i wait for tasty fish to be fried to sweet perfection, i want to take a look at the draws and upcoming knock out stages in the Champions League.
Looking first at the Spanish teams, Barcelona drew Bayer Leverkusen of Germany. Leverkusen finished second to Chelsea in Group E, but struggled to score goals, and their goal differential both in Europe and in Germany is in the single digits. Barcelona on the other hand, swept though the group stage with 5 wins in 6 games, and also managed to steal some more thunder from their rivals in the capital by scoring the most goals in the group stage this year with 20, allowing only 4. Despite losing David Villa for possibly the rest of the season, Barca should advance with ease.
Real Madrid, with a perfect group stage record drew the Group B runners up, CSKA Moscow. Playing eastern European teams can be very tricky at this stage in the year, as their domestic schedules are closer to the MLS schedule, a spring to fall league, rather than a fall to spring league. CSKA Moscow will be well rested, and are just beginning the domestic league in February. This has traditionally hurt eastern European teams as they tend to have a lot of rust coming into the knockout rounds, and that will be something the Whites will be able to exploit. I expect a tight contest in Russia, a 0-0 draw most likely, with Madrid running out ahead in the return leg.
One of the most surprising group stage winners in recent years is Cyprus' APOEL who drew French club Lyon. Domestically APOEL have a stingy defense, and while Lyon has lost some of their talent over the last two seasons, i expect their story to end here, but to be the first Cypriot team to make it to the knock out stage is still a historic feat to be celebrated.
The match up between Inter Milan and Marseilles could be either very interesting, or incredibly disappointing. Both teams are struggling in their domestic campaigns, especially Inter who has been in a state of flux since the departure of Mourinho. While Claudio Ranieri has brought some stability and probably the ability to progress to the round of 8, i can see Marseilles making things difficult for the Italians. I'll pick Inter to progress, but i wouldn't be surprised of an opposite result.
Benfica, the Group C winners face off against Zenit St. Petersburg, Group G runners up. They will face all the same problems that Madrid will have matching up against CSKA Moscow, and will be facing a much more difficult club. Zenit is crushing their domestic competition, and have a goal differential of nearly +40 domestically while sitting at the top of the RPL table. This is the first time Zenit has made it to the group stage, but they will be evenly matched with a tough Portuguese team that along with Basel knocked Manchester United out of the Champions League at the group stage for the first time in 6 years. Both my respect for the growing Russian teams, and my hatred of nearly everything from Portugal, i'll pick Zenit to upset Benfica and move on to the round of 8.
Swiss upstarts Basel, whose final match day victory over Manchester United put them into the knockout rounds will visit European giants Bayern Munich, who won this years 'group of death'. I think Villareal's terrible European campaign takes a bit of the steam out of that moniker, but Napoli and Manchester City weren't pushovers, and FC Hollywood topped the group with a game to spare. I think the Swiss showed a ton of character in the group stage and took the fight to a lot of 'bigger' clubs, but gusto and determination can't overcome the massive gap in talent between the two sides. Bayern Munich is gaining confidence, scoring goals and is sitting on top of the Bundesliga table. They will easily move on.
The Chelsea - Napoli match up can go either way. Chelsea has been up and down since hiring Andre Villas-Boras away from Porto in the summer, and if hiring a Portuguese manager away from Porto worked once, why not try it again? Napoli surprised everyone by making it out of the 'group of death' condemning oil soaked Manchester City to the depths of the Europa League. (Manchester Derby in the Europa League? yes, please) yet are struggling in Serie A. I don't think Napoli have the depth to compete in Europe this year, and Chelsea will progress to the next stage.
AC Milan - Arsenal is the most intriguing of a otherwise tame first knock out round. Arsenal this year will live and die by the Dutch striker Robin Van Persie. I think RVP still is carrying a chip on his shoulder (and if he isn't he should be) after the debacle last season in which he was shown a red card for a delay in a highly suspect fashion. Domestically AC Milan are chasing Juventus and if that is still the case come February, it will be interesting where they place their priorities. AC Milan has firepower however, and while RVP might be the most talented man on the pitch, if Thiago Silva locks him down, Arsenals second and third options won't get the job done against the likes of Ibrahimovic, Robinho, and Pato. I'll pick AC Milan to advance, as Arsenal are simply cursed in the knockout rounds. They win their group to avoid Barcelona only to get the runners up to Barca in AC Milan.
Winners:
Barcelona, Madrid, Lyon, Inter, Zenit, Bayern, Chelsea and AC Milan.
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